The big question for software-defined cars: How long will they actually last?

Americans are holding onto their vehicles longer than ever, with the average U.S. car now around 12.8 years old, according to Mobility Global. But some industry analysts are worried that today's highly complex, software-defined vehicles might age more like smartphones than traditional cars.

These vehicles rely on advanced computers and software to handle functions that were once mechanical or simpler, and they can receive over-the-air updates and connect to networks for remote diagnostics and new features. Rivian's Chief Software Officer Wassym Bensaid says a software-defined vehicle is never "stale in time", it keeps improving after purchase.

But the tech-heavy nature raises concerns: with an average new car costing nearly $50,000, losing features due to outdated hardware or discontinued support is a real risk.

"We honestly don't know how long these vehicles will last," said Sam Fiorani of AutoForecastSolutions. " This isn't a new issue, in 2022, AT&T shut down its 3G network, leaving millions of vehicles without features like emergency services and navigation, though they remained drivable.

Tesla also faced backlash after saying its Hardware 3 computers would support full self-driving, but then announced in April that those vehicles would need upgrades for "unsupervised" FSD.

Rivian says it builds in "headroom" for about seven to ten years of software upgrades, and promises safety and security updates indefinitely. Sam Abuelsamid of Telemetry expects features to get updates for a few years, then drop off as software outgrows hardware, but automakers will likely keep providing basic safety patches.

D. Power's Alex Yurchenko. Valuation is tricky, he says, because there are no widely accepted standards for assessing software-enabled features.

Right-to-repair laws are spreading, and Rivian plans to give owners more access to service menus and diagnostics soon. Abuelsamid argues that companies that stop supporting products should be required to release software to third parties for maintenance. " For now, the industry is still figuring out the long-term answer.