BMW’s M Boss Explains the Real Reasons the Stick Shift Is Fading Away

Ask most carmakers why the manual transmission is disappearing, and you’ll get the same answer: buyers just aren’t choosing them anymore. There’s truth to that, even hardcore enthusiasts appreciate the ease of a modern automatic. But Frank van Meel, head of BMW’s M division, says the story goes much deeper.

Today’s vehicles are essentially computers on wheels, packed with driver-assistance and safety systems that are almost exclusively designed to work with automatics. And because many of those technologies are now mandatory in Europe and other regions, automakers have little choice but to phase out the third pedal.

The pressure doesn’t stop there. Van Meel told Autocar that the supplier base for manual gearboxes is shrinking fast. Fewer companies want to build them, which creates a snowball effect: lower demand leads to fewer suppliers, which makes it harder for automakers to justify keeping manuals alive.

On top of that, mild-hybrid systems, now common in performance cars, are engineered primarily for automatic transmissions. While a few manual hybrids exist, most are sold with two pedals. Van Meel specifically pointed to mild hybrids as another nail in the coffin, raising doubts about whether the next-generation M3 will keep its six-speed option.

Despite the headwinds. BMW M isn’t throwing in the towel. Van Meel said the manual could still survive: “The supplier base is getting smaller, and with all the driver assist systems it’s getting more difficult to disconnect the drivetrain… It doesn’t mean it isn’t possible. ” For now, that means just three models remain with a clutch pedal: the rear-wheel-drive M2, M3, and M4.

The Z4 is already gone. The M3 sedan is expected to end production next year, and the coupes may run through mid-2029. If the next M3 goes all-wheel drive only, the stick shift’s days in BMW’s sports sedan are likely numbered. Still, credit where it’s due. BMW will continue offering two manual models while Audi and Mercedes have long abandoned them.

Enthusiasts have about three more years to grab one. What happens after 2030? Only BMW knows.