BMW 3-Series Takes the Lead as Lexus ES Pauses for a Big Refresh

The luxury sedan market just flipped. After months of trailing the Lexus ES, the BMW 3-Series has surged ahead, posting a 57 percent sales jump in the second quarter. The reason isn’t a sudden shift in buyer preference, it’s timing. Lexus has paused production of the current ES to prepare an all-new 2026 model, leaving a temporary opening that BMW was quick to exploit.

The ES had been dominating, outselling the 3-Series by about 21 percent last year with nearly 40,000 units sold. But as Lexus winds down the seventh-generation model and ramps up an eighth-generation version, now offering hybrid and, for the first time, fully electric powertrains, inventory has all but disappeared.

Sales of the ES have dropped roughly 99 percent, a textbook end-of-lifecycle slump that has nothing to do with demand and everything to do with supply. Meanwhile, the 3-Series has become BMW’s best-selling sedan and its third-most-popular model overall, trailing only the X3 and X5 SUVs.

What happens when both cars return fully loaded? The next chapter of this rivalry will be decided not by horsepower or price tags, but by consistency. D. Power data. Both brands are also charging into electrification: the new ES arrives with hybrid and EV options, while BMW is readying an all-new 3-Series family that will offer combustion and electric versions side by side.

Momentum shifts fast, and the real battle is just getting started.